Representatives of ECB, the Commission and the IMF on 11th September leave Portugal. They were to consider a visit to assess the progress of the Portuguese adjustment program. The report of the fifth Mission is now created. Advance the press was informed that the mission is proceeding well. The opposite also is the case. The revenues depend significantly of schedule. Portugal will therefore miss its program objectives.
The budget deficit for 2012 will now be 5 percent. 4.5 percent were originally agreed. For next year, 3 percent deficit was projected; the troika now expects 4.5 percent. In 2014, the deficit should amount to just 2.3 percent, now it will be at least 2.5 percent. Targets are achieved only when Portugal takes additional consolidation effort.
Apparently jumping the Portuguese economy does not indicate how to be presented it. This is not surprising when you look at the problems with neighbours and trading partners Spain. The turnaround of the Portuguese economy will take considerably longer. The slowing European and global economy does the rest.
This has a considerable impact on the sustainability of Portuguese public debt. Now is expects a maximum debt level just below 124 per cent, which is expected to decrease gradually from 2014. The press release is probably a good reason not to, what has been planned: The maximum debt level should be reached in 2013 at 108.6 percent of GDP. The example of Portugal shows that the eternal protestations that Greece is a special case, and all other countries are on the right track, because the adjustment programs were effective, but they are not correct.
There is a misconception that we can assist with loans between finance the Latin European countries for a few short years until they have solved their debt problems through adjustment programs under the aegis Brussels. In the same time, most debtor countries have long since reached the point where only negotiations between debtor and creditors can help.
The start of these negotiations, should not to be delay through subsidized loans, otherwise it is quite possible does not come to the negotiating table. Of course, nothing hurts more than the neighbourly relations fight over money.